Okay, here's a betting strategy - a heuristic if you will - that would have made money had you employed it in the previous three seasons, which is the only period over which I can reliably test it.
To use the strategy you need just three (arguably four) pieces of information about a game:
- which team is the home team (true or notional)?
- what's their price (and are they favourites)?
- are they higher up on the competition ladder?
The rule is that you bet one unit on the home team (true or notional) if:
- they're favourites, higher on the ladder than their opponents, and priced at $1.40 or more
- they're favourites, but lower on the ladder than their opponents, and priced at $1.70 or more
- they're not favourites, but are higher on the ladder than their opponents, and priced at $1.85 or more
If the home team (true or notional) is neither favourite nor higher on the ladder, don't bet.
You can use this strategy from Week 1 of the season, using the final home-and-away season ladder from 2008 to determine ladder positions for Round 1.
This strategy would have made between 45 and 47 bets in each of the previous three seasons, won between about 61% and 66% of them, and returned 5-10% of the amount outlayed.
I'm not promising anything for this year for this strategy, but its pedigree is as good as any of the MAFL Funds'. Consider it a gift.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Just a suggestion: What about a link to the MAFL Online site from MAFL Stats and vice versa so readers can easily access one site from another?
ReplyDeleteAnd, can I be the mascot for MAFL Stats? Why does Chi have to be mascot just because he looks good? Stats is way beyond Chi! You're always telling me I'm the intelligent one. At least I learn my tricks and Debbie doesn't have to make up tricks for things I can already do. Doesn't 'roll over'require more brains than 'shake'?
Quila,
ReplyDeleteFar more impressive than an ability to 'roll over' is an ability to form grammatically and syntactically correct sentences and, come to that, the ability to type, neither of which skills you've ever demonstrated in my presence.
Disparaging Chi's obvious talents and popularity won't get you anywhere, but I will put your request to be the Official MAFL mascot to the vote.
(Lest anyone think I'm indulging in disturbing, puppetesque self-chat here please be aware that I did not make the Quila posting ...)